SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.87.1 Exhibits Higher Susceptibility to Serum Neutralization Than EG.5.1 and JN.1 (preprint)

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and mutate, tracking the viral evolutionary trajectory and understanding the functional consequences of its mutations remain crucial. Here, we characterized the antibody evasion, ACE2 receptor engagement, and viral infectivity of the highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant BA.2.87.1. Compared with other Omicron subvariants, including EG.5.1 and the current predominant JN.1, BA.2.87.1 exhibits less immune evasion, reduced viral receptor engagement, and comparable infectivity in Calu-3 lung cells. Intriguingly, two large deletions ({Delta}15-26 and {Delta}136-146) in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike protein facilitate subtly increased antibody evasion but significantly diminish viral infectivity. Collectively, our data support the announcement by the USA CDC that the public health risk posed by BA.2.87.1 appears to be low.

Robust SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies Sustained through Three Months Post XBB.1.5 mRNA Vaccine Booster (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies were substantially expanded one month after a shot of XBB.1.5 monovalent mRNA vaccine (XBB.1.5 MV) booster, but the durability of this response remained unknown. Here, we addressed this question by performing neutralization assays on four viral variants (D614G, BA.5, XBB.1.5, and JN.1) using sera from 39 adult participants obtained at ~1 month and ~3 months post an XBB.1.5 MV booster. Our findings indicate that the resultant neutralizing antibody titers were robust and generally maintained at stable levels for the study period, similar to those following XBB infection. Importantly, this durability of neutralizing antibody titers contrasts with the decline observed after a booster of the original monovalent or BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Our results are in line with the recent national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, showing the efficacy against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is sustained for up to 4 months after an XBB.1.5 MV booster.

SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey across multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City between 2020-2023 (preprint)

Sero-monitoring provides context to the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and changes in population immunity following vaccine introduction. Here, we describe results of a cross-sectional hospital-based study of anti-spike seroprevalence in New York City (NYC) from February 2020 to July 2022, and a follow-up period from August 2023 to October 2023. Samples from 55,092 individuals, spanning five epidemiological waves were analyzed. Prevalence ratios (PR) were obtained using Poisson regression. Anti-spike antibody levels increased gradually over the first two waves, with a sharp increase during the 3rd wave coinciding with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in NYC resulting in seroprevalence levels >90% by July 2022. Our data provide insights into the dynamic changes in immunity occurring in a large and diverse metropolitan community faced with a new viral pathogen and reflects the patterns of antibody responses as the pandemic transitions into an endemic stage.

XBB.1.5 monovalent mRNA vaccine booster elicits robust neutralizing antibodies against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

COVID-19 vaccines have recently been updated with the spike protein of SARS-Co-V-2 XBB.1.5 subvariant alone, but their immunogenicity in humans has yet to be fully evaluated and reported, particularly against emergent viruses that are rapidly expanding. We now report that administration of an updated monovalent mRNA vaccine (XBB.1.5 MV) to uninfected individuals boosted serum virus-neutralization antibodies significantly against not only XBB.1.5 (27.0-fold) and the currently dominant EG.5.1 (27.6-fold) but also key emergent viruses like HV.1, HK.3, JD.1.1, and JN.1 (13.3-to-27.4-fold). In individuals previously infected by an Omicron subvariant, serum neutralizing titers were boosted to highest levels (1,764-to-22,978) against all viral variants tested. While immunological imprinting was still evident with the updated vaccines, it was not nearly as severe as the previously authorized bivalent BA.5 vaccine. Our findings strongly support the official recommendation to widely apply the updated COVID-19 vaccines to further protect the public.

Antigenicity and receptor affinity of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 spike (preprint)

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has officially ended, SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve. Recent infections have been dominated by XBB.1.5 and EG.5.1 subvariants. A new subvariant designated BA.2.86 has just emerged, spreading to 21 countries in 5 continents. This virus contains 34 spike mutations compared to its BA.2 predecessor, thereby raising concerns about its propensity to evade existing antibodies. We examined its antigenicity using human sera and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Reassuringly, BA.2.86 was not more resistant to human sera than XBB.1.5 and EG.5.1, indicating that the new subvariant would not have a growth advantage in this regard. Importantly, sera from patients who had XBB breakthrough infection exhibited robust neutralizing activity against all viruses tested, suggesting that upcoming XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccines could confer added protection. The finding that the longer genetic distance of BA.2.86 did not yield a larger antigenic distance was partially explained by the mAb data. While BA.2.86 showed greater resistance to mAbs to subdomain 1 (SD1) and receptor-binding domain (RBD) class 2 and 3 epitopes, it was more sensitive to mAbs to class 1 and 4/1 epitopes in the inner face of RBD that is exposed only when this domain is in the up position. We also identified six new spike mutations that mediate antibody resistance, including E554K that threatens SD1 mAbs in clinical development. The BA.2.86 spike also had a remarkably high receptor affinity. The ultimate trajectory of this new SARS-CoV-2 variant will soon be revealed by continuing surveillance, but its worldwide spread is worrisome.

Antibody Neutralization of Emerging SARS-CoV-2: EG.5.1 and XBC.1.6 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 variants EG.5.1 and XBC.1.6 have recently emerged, attracting increased attention due to their rapid expansion globally and in Australia, respectively. EG.5.1 evolved from Omicron subvariant XBB.1.9, harboring additional Q52H and F456L spike substitutions. The F456L mutation is located within the epitopes of many class-1 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) directed to the receptor-binding domain (RBD), raising concerns about further antibody evasion. XBC.1.6, a descendant of a Delta-BA.2 recombinant, carries 15 additional spike mutations. The extent to which antibody evasion contributes to the growth advantage of XBC.1.6 in Australia remains to be determined. To assess the antibody evasion properties of the emergent variants, we conducted pseudovirus neutralization assays using sera from individuals who received three doses of COVID-19 mRNA monovalent vaccines plus one dose of a BA.5 bivalent vaccine, as well as from patients with BQ or XBB breakthrough infection. The assays were also performed using a panel of 14 mAbs that retained neutralizing activity against prior XBB subvariants. Our data suggested that EG.5.1 was slightly but significantly more resistant (< 2-fold) to neutralization by BQ and XBB breakthrough sera than XBB.1.16, which is known to be antigenically similar to XBB.1.5. Moreover, the F456L mutation in EG.5.1 conferred heightened resistance to certain RBD class-1 mAbs. In contrast, XBC.1.6 was more sensitive to neutralization by sera and mAbs than the XBB subvariants. Notably, XBB breakthrough sera retained only weak neutralization activity against XBB subvariants. In summary, EG.5.1 and XBC.1.6 exhibited distinct antibody evasion properties. The recent global expansion of EG.5.1 might be attributable, in part, to its enhanced neutralization resistance. That XBB breakthrough infections did not elicit a robust antibody neutralization response against XBB subvariants is indicative of immunological imprinting. The high prevalence of XBC.1.6 in Australia is not due to enhanced antibody evasion.

SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies Following a Second BA.5 Bivalent Booster (preprint)

Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines expressing both the ancestral D614G and Omicron BA.5 spike proteins were introduced in August 2022 with the goal of broadening immunity to emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. Subsequent studies on bivalent boosters found neutralizing antibody responses similar to boosters with the original monovalent vaccine, likely the result of immunological imprinting. Guidelines allow for administration of a second bivalent booster in high-risk groups, but it remains unknown whether this would broaden antibody responses. To address this question, we assessed longitudinal serum SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing titers in 18 elderly immunocompetent individuals (mean age 69) following a fourth monovalent booster and two BA.5 bivalent booster vaccines using pseudovirus neutralization assays against D614G, Omicron BA.5, and Omicron XBB.1.5. There was a small but significant increase in peak neutralizing antibody responses against Omicron BA.5 and XBB.1.5 following the first bivalent booster, but no significant increase in peak titers following the second bivalent booster. Omicron-specific neutralizing titers remained low after both doses of the BA.5 bivalent booster. Our results suggest that a second dose of the BA.5 bivalent booster is not sufficient to broaden antibody responses and to overcome immunological imprinting. A monovalent vaccine targeting only the spike of the recently dominant SARS-CoV-2 may mitigate the back boosting associated with the original antigenic sin.

Deep immunological imprinting due to the ancestral spike in the current bivalent COVID-19 vaccine (preprint)

With the aim of broadening immune responses against the evolving SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants, bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines that encode the ancestral and Omicron BA.5 spike proteins have been authorized for clinical use, supplanting the original monovalent counterpart in numerous countries. However, recent studies have demonstrated that administering either a monovalent or bivalent vaccine as a fourth vaccine dose results in similar neutralizing antibody titers against the latest Omicron subvariants, raising the possibility of immunological imprinting. Utilizing binding immunoassays, pseudotyped virus neutralization assays, and antigenic mapping, we investigated antibody responses from 72 participants who received three monovalent mRNA vaccine doses followed by either a bivalent or monovalent booster, or who experienced breakthrough infections with the BA.5 or BQ subvariant after vaccinations with an original monovalent vaccine. Compared to a monovalent booster, the bivalent booster did not yield noticeably higher binding titers to D614G, BA.5, and BQ.1.1 spike proteins, nor higher virus-neutralizing titers against SARS-CoV-2 variants including the predominant XBB.1.5 and the emergent XBB.1.16. However, sera from breakthrough infection cohorts neutralized Omicron subvariants significantly better. Multiple analyses of these results, including antigenic mapping, made clear that inclusion of the ancestral spike prevents the broadening of antibodies to the BA.5 component in the bivalent vaccine, thereby defeating its intended goal. Our findings suggest that the ancestral spike in the current bivalent COVID-19 vaccine is the cause of deep immunological imprinting. Its removal from future vaccine compositions is therefore strongly recommended.

Evolving antibody evasion and receptor affinity of the Omicron BA.2.75 sublineage of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 has diversified into multiple subvariants with additional spike mutations, and several are expanding in prevalence, particularly CH.1.1 and BN.1. Here, we investigated the viral receptor affinities and neutralization evasion properties of major BA.2.75 subvariants actively circulating in different regions worldwide. We found two distinct evolutionary pathways and three newly identified mutations that shaped the virological features of these subvariants. One phenotypic group exhibited a discernible decrease in viral receptor affinities, but a noteworthy increase in resistance to antibody neutralization, as exemplified by CH.1.1, which is apparently as resistant as XBB.1.5. In contrast, a second group demonstrated a substantial increase in viral receptor affinity but only a moderate increase in antibody evasion, as exemplified by BN.1. We also observed that all prevalent SARS-CoV-2 variants in the circulation presently, except for BN.1, exhibit profound levels of antibody evasion, suggesting this is the dominant determinant of virus transmissibility today.

Increased Influenza Severity in Children in the Wake of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and subsequent interruption of influenza circulation has lowered population immunity to influenza, especially among children with few pre-pandemic exposures. We compared the incidence and severity of influenza A/H3N2 and influenza B/Victoria between 2022 and two pre-pandemic seasons and found an increased frequency of severe influenza in 2022.

SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies After Bivalent vs. Monovalent Booster (preprint)

Bivalent mRNA vaccine boosters expressing Omicron BA.5 spike and ancestral D614G spike were introduced to attempt to boost waning antibody titers and broaden coverage against emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Previous reports showed that peak serum neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers against SARS-CoV-2 variants following bivalent booster were similar to peak titers following monovalent booster. It remains unknown whether these antibody responses would diverge over time. We assessed serum virus-neutralizing titers in 41 participants who received three monovalent mRNA vaccine doses followed by bivalent booster, monovalent booster, or BA.5 breakthrough infection at one month and three months after the last vaccine dose or breakthrough infection using pseudovirus neutralization assays against D614G and Omicron subvariants (BA.2, BA.5, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1.5). There was no significant difference at one month and three months post-booster for the two booster cohorts. BA.5 breakthrough patients exhibited significantly higher NAb titers at three months against all Omicron subvariants tested compared against monovalent and bivalent booster cohorts. There was a 2-fold drop in mean NAb titers in the booster cohorts between one and three month time points, but no discernible waning of titers in the BA.5 breakthrough cohort over the same period. Our results suggest that NAb titers after boosting with one dose of bivalent mRNA vaccine are not higher than boosting with monovalent vaccine. Perhaps inclusion of D614G spike in the bivalent booster exacerbates the challenge posed by immunological imprinting. Hope remains that a second bivalent booster could induce superior NAb responses against emerging variants.

Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARS-CoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant continues to evolve, with new BQ and XBB subvariants now rapidly expanding in Europe/US and Asia, respectively. As these new subvariants have additional spike mutations, they may possess altered antibody evasion properties. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals who were boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Compared to the ancestral strain D614G, serum neutralizing titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13-81-fold and 66-155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. A panel of monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant, including those with Emergency Use Authorization, were largely inactive against these new subvariants. The spike mutations that conferred antibody resistance were individually studied and structurally explained. Finally, the ACE2-binding affinities of the spike proteins of these novel subvariants were found to be similar to those of their predecessors. Taken together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized monoclonal antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.

Antibody responses to Omicron BA.4/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine booster shot (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and its numerous sub-lineages have exhibited a striking ability to evade humoral immune responses induced by prior vaccination or infection. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recently granted Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) to new bivalent formulations of the original Moderna and Pfizer mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that target both the ancestral strain as well as the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 variant. Despite their widespread use as a vaccine boost, little is known about the antibody responses induced in humans. Here, we collected sera from several clinical cohorts: individuals after three or four doses of the original monovalent mRNA vaccines, individuals receiving the new bivalent vaccines as a fourth dose, and individuals with BA.4/BA.5 breakthrough infection following mRNA vaccination. Using pseudovirus neutralization assays, these sera were tested for neutralization against an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain, several Omicron sub-lineages, and several related sarbecoviruses. At ~3-5 weeks post booster shot, individuals who received a fourth vaccine dose with a bivalent mRNA vaccine targeting BA.4/BA.5 had similar neutralizing antibody titers as those receiving a fourth monovalent mRNA vaccine against all SARS-CoV-2 variants tested, including BA.4/BA.5. Those who received a fourth monovalent vaccine dose had a slightly higher neutralizing antibody titers than those who received the bivalent vaccine against three related sarbecoviruses: SARS-CoV, GD-Pangolin, and WIV1. When given as a fourth dose, a bivalent mRNA vaccine targeting Omicron BA.4/BA.5 and an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain did not induce superior neutralizing antibody responses in humans, at the time period tested, compared to the original monovalent vaccine formulation.

Infection-induced immunity is associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, but not decreased infectivity during household transmission (preprint)

Background Understanding the impact of infection-induced immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission will provide insight into the transition of SARS-CoV-2 to endemicity. Here we estimate the effects of prior infection induced immunity and children on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households. Methods We conducted a household cohort study between March 2020-June 2022 in Managua, Nicaragua where when one household member tests positive for SARS-CoV-2, household members are closely monitored for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using a pairwise survival model, we estimate the association of infection period, age, symptoms, and infection-induced immunity with secondary attack risk. Results Overall transmission occurred in 72.4% of households, 42% of household contacts were infected and the secondary attack risk was 13.0% (95% CI: 11.7, 14.6). Prior immunity did not impact the probability of transmitting SARS-CoV-2. However, participants with pre-existing infection-induced immunity were half as likely to be infected compared to naive individuals (RR 0.53, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.72), but this reduction was not observed in children. Likewise, symptomatic infected individuals were more likely to transmit (RR 24.4, 95% CI: 7.8, 76.1); however, symptom presentation was not associated with infectivity of young children. Young children were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 than adults. During the omicron era, infection-induced immunity remained protective against infection. Conclusions Infection-induced immunity is associated with protection against infection for adults and adolescents. While young children are less infectious, prior infection and asymptomatic presentation did not reduce their infectivity as was seen in adults. As SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children may become more important in transmission dynamics.

High co-circulation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza transmission decreased substantially worldwide meaning that health systems were not faced with simultaneous respiratory epidemics. In 2022, however, substantial influenza transmission returned to Nicaragua where it co-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 causing substantial disease burden.

SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced immunity and the duration of viral shedding: results from a Nicaraguan household cohort study (preprint)

Background. Much of the worlds population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Thus, infection-induced immunity will play a critical role in future SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We investigated the impact of immunity from prior infection on viral shedding duration and viral load.Methods. We conducted a household cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptom status. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity, respectively. Blood samples were collected in Feb/March and Oct/Nov 2020 and 2021, and surrounding household intensive monitoring periods. We used accelerated failure time models to compare shedding times. Participants vaccinated [≥]14 days prior to infection were excluded from primary analyses.Results. There were 600 RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections between May 1, 2020 and March 10, 2022 with ELISA data prior to infection. Prior infection was associated with 48% shorter shedding times, event time ratio (ETR) 0.52 (95% CI: 0.39-0.69, mean shedding: 13.7 vs 26.4 days). A 4-fold higher anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike titer was associated with 17% shorter shedding (ETR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90). Similarly, maximum viral loads (lowest CT) were lower for previously infected individuals (mean CT 29.8 vs 28.0, p = 4.02x10-3). Shedding was shorter in previously infected adults and children [≥]10 years, but not in children 0-9 years; there was little difference in CT levels for previously infected vs naive adults above age 60.Conclusions. Prior infection-induced immunity was associated with shorter viral shedding and lower viral loads.Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institute of Health [award no. R01 AI120997 to A.G., and contract nos. HHSN272201400006C and 75N93021C00016 to A.G.], and a grant from Open Philanthropy.

SARS-CoV-2 spike-binding antibody longevity and protection from re-infection with antigenically similar SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

The PARIS (Protection Associated with Rapid Immunity to SARS-CoV-2) cohort follows health care workers with and without documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) since April 2020. We report our findings regarding SARS-CoV-2 spike binding antibody stability and protection from infection in the pre-variant era. We analyzed data from 400 healthcare workers (150 seropositive and 250 seronegative at enrollment) for a median of 84 days. The SARS-CoV-2 spike binding antibody titers were highly variable with antibody levels decreasing over the first three months, followed by a relative stabilization. We found that both more advanced age (>40 years) and female sex were associated with higher antibody levels (1.6-fold and 1.4-fold increases, respectively). Only six percent of the initially seropositive participants "seroreverted". We documented a total of 11 new SARS-CoV-2 infections (ten naive participants, one previously infected participant without detectable antibodies, p<0.01) indicating that spike antibodies limit the risk of re-infection. These observations, however, only apply to SARS-CoV-2 variants antigenically similar to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 ones. In conclusion, SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers mounted upon infection are stable over several months in most people and provide protection from infection with antigenically similar viruses.

Burden of SARS-CoV-2 and protection from symptomatic second infection in children (preprint)

Importance The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on children remains unclear. Better understanding of the burden of COVID-19 among children and their protection against re-infection is crucial as they will be among the last groups vaccinated. Objective To characterize the burden of COVID-19 and assess how protection from symptomatic re-infection among children may vary by age. Design A prospective, community-based pediatric cohort study conducted from March 1, 2020 through October 15, 2021. Setting The Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort is a community-based cohort in District 2 of Managua, Nicaragua. Participants A total of 1964 children aged 0-14 years participated in the cohort. Non-immunocompromised children were enrolled by random selection from a previous pediatric influenza cohort. Additional newborn infants aged [≤] 4 weeks were randomly selected and enrolled monthly, via home visits. Exposures Prior COVID-19 infection as confirmed by positive anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (receptor binding domain [RBD] and spike protein) or real time RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infection [≥] 60 days prior to current COVID-19. Main Outcomes and Measures Symptomatic COVID-19 cases confirmed by real time RT-PCR and hospitalization within 28 days of symptom onset of confirmed COVID-19 case. Results Overall, 49.8% of children tested were seropositive over the course of the study. There were also 207 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases, 12 (6.4%) of which were severe enough to require hospitalization. Incidence of COVID-19 was highest among children aged <2 years -- 16.1 per 100 person-years (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 12.5, 20.5) -- approximately three times that of children in any other age group assessed. Additionally, 41 (19.8%) symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 episodes were re-infections, with younger children slightly more protected against symptomatic reinfection. Among children aged 6-59 months, protection was 61% (Rate Ratio [RR]:0.39, 95% CI:0.2,0.8), while protection among children aged 5-9 and 10-14 years was 64% (RR:0.36,0.2,0.7), and 49% (RR:0.51,0.3-0.9), respectively.

SARS-CoV-2 and endemic coronaviruses: Comparing symptom presentation and severity of symptomatic illness among Nicaraguan children (preprint)

It has been proposed that as SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children will represent the greatest proportion of SARS-Co-V-2 infections as they currently do with endemic coronavirus infections. While SARS-CoV-2 infection severity is low for children, it is unclear if SARS-CoV-2 infections are distinct in symptom presentation, duration, and severity from endemic coronavirus infections in children. We compared symptom risk and duration of endemic human coronavirus (HCoV) infections from 2011-2016 with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021 in a Nicaraguan pediatric cohort. Blood samples were collected from study participants annually in February-April. Respiratory samples were collected from participants that met testing criteria. Blood samples collected in were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and a subset of 2011-2016 blood samples from four-year-old children were tested for endemic HCoV antibodies. Respiratory samples were tested for each of the endemic HCoVs from 2011-2016 and for SARS-CoV-2 from 2020-2021 via rt-PCR. By April 2021, 854 (49%) cohort participants were ELISA positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Most participants had antibodies against one alpha and one beta coronavirus by age four. We observed 595 symptomatic endemic HCoV infections from 2011-2016 and 121 symptomatic with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021. Symptom presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and endemic coronavirus infections were very similar, and SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infections were as or less severe on average than endemic HCoV infections. This suggests that, for children, SARS-CoV-2 may be just another endemic coronavirus. However, questions about the impact of variants and the long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 remain.

An immune correlate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity of reinfections (preprint)

Background. An immune correlate of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection is urgently needed. Methods. We used an ongoing household cohort with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptom status. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity. Sequencing was performed to determine circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the protection associated with seropositivity resulting from prior infection, the anti-spike antibody titers needed for protection, and we compared the severity of first and second infections. Results. In March 2021, 62.3% of the cohort was seropositive. After March 2021, gamma and delta variants predominated. Seropositivity was associated with 69.2% protection from any infection (95% CI: 60.7%-75.9%), with higher protection against moderate or severe infection (79.4%, 95% CI: 64.9%-87.9%). Anti-spike titers of 327 and 2,551 were associated with 50% and 80% protection from any infection; titers of 284 and 656 were sufficient for protection against moderate or severe disease. Second infections were less severe than first infections (Relative Risk (RR) of moderated or severe disease: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.38-0.98; RR of subclinical disease:1.9, 95% CI: 1.33-2.73). Conclusions. Prior infection-induced immunity is protective against infection when predominantly gamma and delta SARS-CoV-2 circulated. The protective antibody titers presented may be useful for vaccine policy and control measures. While second infections were somewhat less severe, they were not as mild as ideal. A strategy involving vaccination will be needed to ease the burden of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.